CHAPTER XIV.

FALLACIES.

§§ 1-3. (I.) Errors in judging of events after they have happened. 4-7. Very various judgments may be thus involved. 8, 9. (II.) _Confusion between random and picked selections._ 10, 11. (III.) Undue limitation of the notion of Probability. 12-16. (IV.) Double or Quits: the Martingale. 17, 18. Physical illustration. 19, 20. (V.) Inadequate realization of large numbers. 21-24. Production of works of art by chance. 25. Illustration from doctrine of heredity. 26-30. (VI.) Confusion between Probability and Induction. 31-33. (VII.) Undue neglect of small chances. 34, 35. (VIII.) _Judging by the event in Probability and in Induction._

PART III.

VARIOUS APPLICATIONS OF THE THEORY OF PROBABILITY. Chh. XV-XIX.