Part 2
Mr. _Young_ rates the clear profits of the Manufactories and Trade of _England_ alone at 37 millions; but as these two objects have apparently been trebled in regard to the exports, they cannot be supposed to have exceeded 12 millions in the reign of _William_ and _Mary_. To this let us add, in a proportion rather exaggerated, 5 millions for the landed and commercial revenues of _Scotland_; and it will appear, that, including the 32 millions of landed produce, as computed by Mr. _King_, the total amount of the revenue, land and trade of both countries included, could hardly be equal to 49 millions in the beginning of the present century. Now, from the same author, both kingdoms contained at that period 7,200,000 inhabitants, who, if admitted to a brotherly share, would have claimed only 4½_d._ each per day. I do not confine myself to a nicer exactness in the fractions: the object is not to calculate the precise instant of an eclipse; or at least, that of English prosperity appearing to me no ways probable, I think myself justified in neglecting every thing that might impede my operations, without influencing, in the least, my arguments.
Yet the wages of a journeyman were nevertheless rated then at 8_d._ per day: but let it be observed, that the number of working-days, when balanced with the holidays, sickness, and want of employment, those eight pence, distributed in the journeyman’s family, were often reduced to two; just as the sixteen pence, the present price of labour, according to Mr. _Young_’s Estimate, commonly amount to 4_d._ only, although the brotherly share of each man nearly amounts to 8_d._ If any one should be inclined to call this, injustice, let him consider that this very multitude of reductions from 4_d._ to 2_d._ and from 8_d._ to 4_d._ from _William III._ to this present time, has been the only means of accumulating by degrees that immense stock of 600 millions and upwards, manifestly laid out by the State in less than a century, and of which the National Debt makes a part. It is evident that if each individual, from _William III._ had only spent at the rate of 5_d._ per day, there would be no National Debt; but as each man of the nation could, generally speaking, and upon an equal proportion, lay out only 4½_d._ per day, the exceeding halfpenny must have long ago swallowed up the whole principal, the produce of former reductions.
Not one of the monuments erected since that period would now exist, nor would a single trace be left of the stocks to which the nation owes its present wealth: each portion of the national stock, every monument posterior to that era, prove as many persons reduced in the origin from 4_d._ to 2_d._ and then from 8_d._ to 4_d._ as either of the above two sums are oftener told in the value of such monument, or such stock as might be made the subject of inquiry. No country in the world can boast of a more respectable source of its opulence.⸺This opulence must either be given up, or the inconveniences that attend it be submitted to. In all parts of the world the labourer earns a livelihood, and very little above that: yet this very trifle is sufficient to make him happy, wherever he cannot be compelled to work without pay. He feels little, never takes the trouble of thinking, and leaves off work only to eat, make merry, or go to rest.—Is our lot better, with that fatal degree of reflection by which our whole life so often centers within a single point?
But is the nation in general as happy in our days as it was in those of _William III_? Have those causes, which tend to produce a decrease in the population, no manner of influence on the people’s happiness? And is not the reality of such causes more self-evident, than the pretended proofs adduced universally in favour of its increase?
Without entering into any dispute on the merits of the researches concerning population, which would lead to some truths perhaps unthought of hitherto; here follow the arguments which will occur to any man who stands not in need of a fixed and precise number of thinking heads, laborious hands, and well-digesting stomachs.
1st. It is not easy to conceive how, the landed revenue being nearly double, there should be a less number of husbandmen; for it is not with agriculture as we find it in several manufactories, where the invention of engines, and an alteration in the mode of working, can so advantageously supply the supposed decrease in the number of hands to work after the primitive manner. The valuable number of husbandmen seems therefore, in my opinion, placed beyond even the idea of a decrease.
2dly. It is no less impossible to imagine, that the number of sailors being nearly in a triple proportion to what it was, and the quantity of exports probably augmented on account of the burden of the outward-bound ships, a diminution should have taken place among that class of people, equally precious to the State, for establishing and ascertaining its wealth and strength, as the cultivation is indispensable to secure and support its very existence.
3dly. If, notwithstanding the acknowledged impossibility of proving a real decrease in the population, any one should obstinately admit of it, without positive proofs, it cannot at least be denied, that the produce of land and industry being nearly doubled, some means must have been devised, to do that with one hand which required two before. In this case it would be an easy matter to prove, that at the rate of the supposed depopulation, the few elect, who have escaped its causes, can boast of enjoyments in a threefold proportion to what they were before, notwithstanding the difference between the present impost and that which was paid in the beginning of this century: for, after all, the taxes under _William III._ amounted to four millions and a half and upwards, to be deducted from forty-nine millions standing revenue; the balance was therefore forty-four millions and a half, to be shared amongst 7,200,000 inhabitants, acknowledged by Mr. _King_; that is, very little above 4_d._ per day for each individual. Now, in the year 1779, for I have not yet exceeded that period, the impost was of about nine millions, which, taken from an income of 110 millions, left a surplusage of 101,000,000_l._ to be divided. If we adopt the supposed depopulation at its highest rate, the number of souls in _England_ is reduced to 4,500,000, each of whom has 1_s._ 3_d._ instead of 4_d._ allowed in the reign of _William_. It is then incontestible that the Nation is richer, but, I must own, not more happy; for they complain and are alarmed at this time, as was then the case.
It would be necessary to allow the supposition of an increase, if the intention were to shew that the people are now in a worse condition: nor could even this be deemed sufficient; for, admitting the existence of 9,350,000 inhabitants, it will appear, that, by the surplusage of 101 millions left, after the discharge of the taxes in 1779, each individual would be entitled to 7_d._ instead of the groat, in _William_’s reign.
The nation therefore in that year, in spite of its public debt, had almost doubled its wealth, rating the population at 9,350,000; and raised it four-fold, supposing the number reduced to 4,500,000 souls: and in either case, the riches of the State, as well as the national debt, arose and increased from the daily reductions of 4_d._ to 2_d._ and of 8_d._ to 4_d._ which, since the reign of _William_ to this day, have escaped from that all-devouring canker, commonly called LUXURY.
_A more particular View of the same Subject._
I wish to inquire more minutely, whether such facts as are known do not cast a sufficient light over all the others in general, to induce the most anxious and pressing creditor, and the nicest in point of proofs, to sleep in the utmost security, till some particular discovery pleads in justification of his alarms.
The present revenue of _England_ is stated at 63 millions; that of _Scotland_, at about 7 millions; collectively, 70,000,000_l._ It will be seen hereafter, that 65 or 75 millions would give the same essential results: I must however add, if any thing more should be wanted, that, in his estimate, Mr. _Young_ does not include the horses, hemp, flax, vegetables, fruit, nor hops, &c. all of which are reproduced annually, and augment considerably the number of exchanges held out to industry.
This landed revenue is produced by somewhat more than one third of the inhabitants.
It remains for us now to compute, at the lowest, the income produced by a second class of people, probably as numerous as the former, since not less than 1,500,000 persons of both sexes, and of all ages, are employed solely in preparing and working the wool. (See _Chalmers_’s Estimates.) But if the labour of 3,000,000 of husbandmen brings in 70 millions annually, why should that of an equal number of mechanics and handicraftsmen stand for less in the computation? To this reason let the following remarks be added.
Out of the 70 millions, 20 come to the share of the cultivators, either as the price of their labour, or for poor’s rates; 12, of these 20 millions, at least, are laid out for the produce of industry: bread, it may be observed, is comprised in the remaining 8 millions.
Let us state the number of proprietors at 2,000,000, including all their dependents, under any denomination whatever, women, children, chaplains, farmers, physicians, strollers, servants, &c. and their annual expenditure, in the rough produce of the land, at 18 millions, there remains only 32,000,000, which must be paid by the industry, already in advance, of the 12,000,000 exchange granted to the cultivator. It is obvious that I speak here only of that kind of industry which may be productive of exchangeable commodities, even against those of foreign produce.
Three millions of mechanics do not live more soberly, nor are they worse clothed, than the husbandmen: it may therefore be inferred, that out of the 20 millions, which they likewise receive for their labour, they lay out in the produce of industry, 12 millions, which, added to the 44 millions I have just mentioned, make, all together, 56 millions.
The manufacturers and principal traders, under every denomination, with their dependents of all kinds, complete the necessary number of the supposed population of 9,350,000 inhabitants, that is, 1,100,000 souls, themselves, the idle people supported by them, and their household included. Supposing their consumption of the rough produce to be proportionable to that of the proprietor, their expenditure will be 10,000,000; but then we must square by the same rule what they lay out for the produce of industry: 18 millions will be the sum, which, together with the other 56 millions, makes a mass of 74, instead of the 70,000,000 acknowledged in agriculture. Even this would not be sufficient, for reasons which I shall give in the sequel; but I shall observe, in the first instance, that were the population less numerous than we have supposed it to be, the same consumption of the rough produce is certainly inadmissible: but the landed revenue remaining the same, though procured by a less number of hands, it would then become necessary to estimate the amount of the labours of industry, effected by a number of handicraftsmen, equal to that of the cultivators, from the ascertained value of the latter’s productive labour.
I now return to the _deficit_ wanted for the security of a constant increase of wealth, which may at all times supply all the exigencies of the State.
The 18,000,000 consumed on the produce of industry, as granted to the principal traders, seem to raise them to 4,000,000 above their real value; I mean, that which is acknowledged in the produce of agriculture. It is not under colour of the supposed interest of the enormous principal, which gives motion to the manufactures and to the inland trade; it is necessary that industry should contribute its stock, as well as agriculture. The principals laid out, by the one or the other, are a matter of indifference to the state; it can speculate but on their produce, and pays exactly the interests, when it rates at the same value the result of the labours of both; but, to the 70 millions assigned as the indisputable produce of industry, (supposing a laborious man to be as good as any other equally industrious) we must add the intrinsic value of the rough materials on which industry hath wrought: This accession, which is also fair and equitable, will furnish, not only the 4,000,000, which annually exceed the home consumption just mentioned, but likewise all the millions necessary to secure, and mean while explain, this gradual increase, which it would be difficult not to trace in trade, as it is observable in the landed property. The latter is doubled within the space of 90 years; from whence we are forced to conclude, that the annual savings of the farmers, and owners living on the spot and cultivating their estates on the true principles of husbandry, have sufficed to discharge, not only the public burdens, and to defray the manuring expences, but also to double the produce and the general means in the most important article. It remains now to examine, whether the savings of the manufacturers, traders, and other supporters of industry, are as indisputable as those made by the cultivators.
_Clear Savings of the Manufactories, Trade, and other Branches of Industry._
The riches of a country, and its progress, are established and confirmed by its savings. Let us consider cursorily such as, from their self-evidence, admit of no dispute.
Ninety years ago the landed revenue of _Great-Britain_ was computed at about 35 millions. Let us suppose that 10 millions of specie were then required to give an effectual circulation to property of all kinds, (many people will think this by far too little[1]): but the revenue of landed estates, being now 70 millions, 20 millions at least, instead of the 10 millions requisite in the times of _William_ and _Mary_, should be allowed; and consequently a first clear stock of savings amounts to—10,000,000_l._
The consumer in those days was probably allowed, as is still the custom, a twelve-month’s credit upon half the articles purchased. Some of them took a longer time, if others a shorter one; but the stock of credit being then equal only to 35 millions, and now raised to 70 millions, we have clearly another mass of savings of—35,000,000.
Then, as in the present time, the preparing, manufacturing, and delivering, required six, twelve, or eighteen months. Let us suppose the year, upon an average of the slowness of one operation, and the celerity with which another was performed, we shall find again, in the difference of the flock, a third saving of 35,000,000.
If we suppose the value of manufactories, dwellings, warehouses, and all kinds of establishments, necessary to answer all the exigencies of a stock of industry and commerce of 35,000,000, to have amounted then to 25,000,000, we must admit that the objects in the same manner necessary to a stock of 70,000,000, do likewise present us with a fourth clear saving of—25,000,000.
In order to employ those hands by whose labour the annual sum of 35,000,000 was produced, 10,000,000 were probably sufficient; whereas 20,000,000 are now required. This shews a fifth clear saving of—10,000,000.
The annual returns from the _American_ islands was computed, 90 years ago, at about 330,000, (Sir _Charles Whitworth_’s State of Trade). Half of this produce was, in all likelihood, mortgaged to commerce; but it only supposed a stock of 3,000,000 at most lent, it matters not at what interest. The yearly produce of those colonies, added to that of the ceded islands, amounts, at present, to more than 2,900,000; more than one-third of which belongs to the trader, either as purchaser or mortgagee, and exhibits a sum of about 20,000,000, from which we shall substract the former 3,000,000; and considering (for a moment) those colonies as being foreign to the State, we shall find a sixth clear saving of—17,000,000, (the petition of the merchants in 1775, supposes it to be 30,000,000.)
The _English_ might perhaps be out of humour with me, were I to suppose that the continent of _America_, stands on the debtor side, for no more than 4,000,000; I shall therefore set down this article as—_Memorandum_.
Eighty years ago the amount of exportation from _England_, was estimated at 5,612,085_l._ In 1773, upon a medium of three years, the same was increased to 16,027,937: of the exceeding 9 or 10 millions, one part appropriated to the commerce in _Europe_, another to the _American_, a third to the _East-India_ trade, remain one, two, and sometimes three years, before they can be applied to the same objects. These 10,000,000 therefore suppose a stock more than double the same sum, and ought, in consequence, to be set down as a seventh clear saving of—10,000,000.
The _English_ ships, employed eighty years ago in carrying on the national trade, presented only a sum of 289,318 tons burden; the number of tons is now rated at 775,078. This increase of 485,760, together with the expence attending the fitting out, going and coming, produce a stock of 5,000,000, which must be doubled, by compensating the voyages of six and eight months, by those which require two or three years: here, therefore, appears an eighth clear saving of—10,000,000.
The proprietor of lands should not be considered in this light, in the use he makes of his yearly profits, but with respect to that part of his said profits which he lays out in cultivation: In regard to that share of his income which he invests in the funds, we must consider him as member, agent, and usufructuary of industry and commerce. Now, if we divide into three parts the whole of the national debt, one-third of which, if agreeable, we shall set down as foreign property, and the other two as belonging to the natives, we must of course acknowledge in the nation a new sum of clear savings, amounting to 180,000,000. This, in fact, should not be considered as a real increase of wealth, which it is at all times easy to appreciate, but as a proof that there exists, in the nation, an inestimable number of men, who are capable, in the space of ninety years, to effect a saving of 180,000,000, which government will have it in its power, within the same space of time, to appropriate to the exigencies of war, if potentates should continue in a warlike humour; or to lay out in objects of industry and cultivation, supposing an improvement of the revenue should be preferred to a state of warfare.
I shall not speak either of the difference which may be observed between the present state of the Royal navy, and the situation it was in at the beginning of this century, nor of the public monuments erected from that period, nor of the _India_ territories, nor of the Colonies remaining to _England_; provided the objection concerning the money due to foreigners is not repeated against me, as I am in hopes, by and by, to find some kind of compensation for it. I shall therefore confine myself here, to observe, that the above savings of all kinds of industry, some of them active, the others passive, all equally necessary, assisting each other mutually, no doubt, and finally amounting to 332 millions, have been effected in the course of 90 years; not with any sensible detriment to the landed property, since its revenue is doubled, nor to the disadvantage of the lower class of people, whose day-work brings in 1_s._ 4_d._ instead of 8_d._ nor to the prejudice of the fine arts, the rewards of which are perhaps fourfold, comparatively speaking; but solely according to the common course of things, _restrained, nevertheless, by a war of 30 years and upwards, out of the 90_, and by all the prejudices which the present generation begins to shake off, and which probably will be entirely abolished in the next.
It is no ways natural that the same causes will not be productive of the same effects. It may therefore, in my judgement, be reasonably concluded, that, within 90 years from this day, the landed revenue may be increased to double its actual value, and the population, trade, and industry, augmented in the like proportion, were even the national debt to amount then to 476,000,000, instead of the present 238,000,000, which excites so many complaints and loud murmurings.
In fact, let us suppose the debt arrived at a height so apparently formidable, _and the price of every thing proportionably increased_; would the former be less firmly established? Methinks that the very contrary is demonstrated by calculation, and that imagination cannot frame any rational objection thereto; at least I am free to confess, that all my efforts have not been able to produce any combination of probable circumstances, which might, in any supposition, justify the dread of that _application of the sponge_ which is so often held out as a resource that sooner or later must be adopted. Setting aside the infamy of such a measure, what advantage would accrue from it? Let it be adopted this moment in _London_, within three days the same step must inevitably be taken at _Paris_. A manœuvre of this kind would manifestly indicate either the most hostile intentions on the part of the _English_ government, or the project of overturning the constitution: the latter concerns _England_ alone; but in the former, _France_ is deeply interested. That power would be compelled to put itself in a situation to oppose an immense and free revenue, to a revenue equally immense without appropriation. Were, on the other hand, the _French_ to lead the way, _England_ must inevitably follow; and the unprofitable disgrace would be the portion of either of the two nations that should have set up the precedent.